James Lavish is a Bitcoin advocate and writer of the Informationist newsletter. In this interview, we discuss central banks’ manipulation of the monetary system, the eye-melting bailouts to come, an inevitable credit event the Fed will be unable to rectify, why BRICS pressure doesn’t currently threaten the dollar, and how the US rejecting Bitcoin may lead to hyperbitcoinisation.
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Last month US Treasury yield curves witnessed their deepest inversion for over 40 years. This means holding bonds over the long term results in a lower return than shorter-duration contracts. It is a classic signal of a looming recession. It is the market expectation that future interest rates will be cut in order to stimulate an economy.
Whilst there are historical precedents for this situation, what sets the current paradigm apart is the level of unsustainable government debt: increasingly, countries are having to deal with debt levels in excess of their respective GDP. Whilst high inflation provides a way for reducing these burdens, such levels of inflation are politically damaging, and further, risk damaging economies and thereby tax income. Moreover, they risk damaging critical banking infrastructure.
Interest rates, as a result, will oscillate: they have accelerated to reduce rampant inflation, then, as is being forecast, they will need to be cut to stimulate a stagnant economy. All the while, commercial banks will be forced to search for yield. And some of these banks will get on the wrong side of the trade. Recent events have shown how quickly such situations can spiral out of control.
But, for how long can governments keep bailing out the banks? James Lavish, a leading market analyst, predicts a precarious situation. For a variety of reasons, the US can’t afford to go into a deep recession. As a result, James predicts a “face-melting print” by the Fed to avoid this situation. But, then, at some point the music will stop, and there could be a watershed credit event where the Fed won’t or can’t step in. The real question is, what comes after this event?